The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 8. The 2024 and 2025 forecasts for “other biofuels,” which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), were maintained.
The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average 210,000 barrels per day in 2024, a forecast maintained from the September STEO. The agency now predicts renewable diesel production will average 230,000 barrels per day next year, down from last month’s forecast of 240,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel production averaged 170,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA maintained its forecast that renewable diesel net import will average 30,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 20,000 barrels per day in 2025. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA also maintained its forecast that renewable diesel consumption will average 240,000 barrels per day in 2024. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was reduced to 250,000 barrels per day, down from the 260,000 barrel per day forecast made in September. Renewable diesel consumption averaged 190,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The outlook for “other biofuel” production was maintained at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 40,000 barrels per day in 2025. Production for “other biofuels,” which is defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other biofuel” are forecast at zero for both 2024 and 2025. Consumption is currently forecast at 20,000 barrels per day this year and 40,000 barrels per day next year. Consumption of “other biofuels” averaged 20,000 barrels per day in 2023.
