CoBank on April 10 released its latest quarterly research report, predicting domestic ethanol blending will remain stable or increase slightly this year. However, policy uncertainty and trade disruptions due to tariff disputes could negatively impact the industry.
Within the report, CoBank stresses that upcoming Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations (RVOs) and implementation of the 45Z clean fuels production credit will determine the trajectory of biofuels demand and production. The EPA could propose 2026 RVOs as soon as this spring, which would allow the agency to finalize a rulemaking before then end of this year. CoBank said the upcoming 2026 RVO could bring some certainty to the biofuels industry if RVO levels more closely align with production capacity.
Regarding ethanol, CoBank said upcoming decisions on small refinery exemptions (SREs) will affect producers. If the EPA approves future SREs, it could lower the overall ethanol mandate established in future RVOs. Domestic ethanol blending is currently expected to hold steady or increase slightly as consumers choose higher blends and California uses E85, according to the report.
CoBank points to potential export disruptions as the ethanol industry’s greatest current change. “Ethanol exports can move the needle on ethanol demand more quickly and effectively than nationwide E15, where legislative certainty stalls in the halls of Congress,” CoBank wrote in the report.
A full copy of the report is available on the CoBank website.
