1 P.M. C.T.
Grain trading concluded at 12:05 P.M. today in a holiday shortened session. Corn futures were up a nickel while soybean and wheat futures were nearly unchanged at the close. The lackluster response to a very strong weekly export sales report for soybeans has to be disappointing to the bean bulls. The USDA target for U.S. soybean oil exports is 600 million pounds, while current sales sit at 875 million pounds. Traders are expecting the USDA to increase their sales target in upcoming reports. Will this help the outlook for a declining U.S. carryout in soybeans?
Livestock futures settled the day mixed. Feeder cattle were up 47¢ to 97¢. Live cattle futures were down 2¢ to up 25¢. Lean hog futures down 37¢ to $1.55. Traders are not expecting a lot of cash cattle transactions this afternoon after a very busy Wednesday where cash prices for live cattle were $2 to $5 higher than last week. Will this strength continue when we resume trading next week and the calendar rolls to December?
The outside markets are mixed in early afternoon trading. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.33, crude oil is down 43¢, S&P 500 futures are up 36 points, and the Dow Jones is up 203 points. The U.S. stock market has posted impressive gains this year. Will traders and investors look to book profits and move money to a different market in December?
9 A.M. C.T.
Grain futures are mixed to start this holiday shortened session. Grain futures will end trading today at 12:05pm Central Time. Corn is up 2 to 3¢, soybeans are down 3 to 5¢ while the wheat complex is steady to up 3¢. The USDA Weekly Export Sales report was released this morning due to the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. Wheat posted net sales of 366,800 metric tons, corn had 1,062,900 metric tons reported net sales for 2024/25 and 67,200 metric tons for 2025/26 and soybeans sales were reported at 2,490,500 metric tons for 2024/25 and 18,000 metric tons for 2025/26. It is worth noting that this report did show China buying 13,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil; China has not bought U.S. soybean oil since 2020/21 marketing year.
Grain traders will begin to weigh the potential of a massive South American crop this year. Weather that started out dry early in the growing season has shifted to nearly ideal conditions. Local analysts are increasing production estimates nearly every week as the weather improves. The world balance sheet appears to be increasing for soybeans.
Livestock futures are mixed in early trade. Feeder Cattle are down 50¢, Live Cattle are up 10¢ and Lean Hogs are up 47¢. Cash cattle this week was reported $2 to $5 higher on Wednesday. Did the packers get all of their buying down early this week, or will we see further cash trade today? The USDA Weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for both beef and pork. Beef sales were reported at 4,800 metric tons while pork was pegged at 17,200 metric tons. Traders are hoping the U.S. dollar has peaked and will begin trending lower as the U.S. dollar near 108 is not helping the beef or pork export market.
In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.16, crude oil is up 69¢, S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and the Dow Jones is up 127 points. Traders will be watching the 105.87 mark in the U.S. dollar today closely as it is the 20-day moving average. We have only closed below this line once since the current rally began on September 30.
