Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.15% to settle at ₹55,110 amid profit booking, following gains spurred by a downward revision in domestic crop estimates by the Cotton Association of India (CAI). CAI has slashed its 2024–25 production forecast by 4 lakh bales to 291.30 lakh bales of 170 kg each, largely due to lower yields in Maharashtra. Total cotton supply up to March-end is estimated at 306.83 lakh bales, including 25 lakh bales of imports and 30.19 lakh bales of opening stocks. End-March stocks are pegged at 127.83 lakh bales, with mills holding 27 lakh bales and the rest distributed among CCI, Maharashtra Federation, and traders.
Despite a rise in imports—expected to more than double to 33 lakh bales from last season’s 15.20 lakh bales—domestic supply concerns persist, keeping prices supported. CAI attributes this import surge to further anticipated declines in domestic production. Meanwhile, exports are expected to fall to 16 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh bales last year, and closing stocks for the season are projected lower at 23.49 lakh bales. On the global front, the USDA’s April update indicates a slight reduction in global cotton production and mill use, with exports declining across major producing countries. U.S. exports were trimmed by 100,000 bales, increasing ending stocks to 5 million bales.
Technically, Cottoncandy is in a short covering phase, marked by a 0.8% drop in open interest to 249. Support is seen at ₹54,860, with a break below targeting ₹54,620. Resistance lies at ₹55,410, and a move above this could open the path toward ₹55,720.
