The USDA increased its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 10. The forecast for season-average corn prices was unchanged.
The current 2024-’25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports and lower ending stocks.
The USDA increased its forecast for corn use in ethanol to 5.5 billion bushels, up from last month’s forecast of 5.45 billion bushels. The increase is based on recent data from the agency’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the month of November. The USDA said these data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn use for fuel ethanol production was at 5.478 billion bushels for 2023-’24 and at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23.
The USDA also increased its outlook for corn exports by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Globally, the outlook for foreign corn production is cut with declines for the European Union, Mexico, and Indonesia partially offset by an increase for Ukraine. EU corn production is down reflecting reductions for Italy, Romania, Croatia, and Austria that are partially offset by increases for Poland, Spain and France. Mexico corn production is reduced reflecting lower winter corn area expectations.
Corn exports for 2024-’25 are raised for the U.S. and Canada but lowered for the EU. Corn imports are higher for Bangladesh, the EU, Iran and Mexico but cut for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced based on declines for China, the EU and Indonesia. Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 7.7 million.
