The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2025 renewable diesel and biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 14. The 2025 outlook for “other biofuel” production, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), was also unchanged.
The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average 230,000 barrels per day in 2025, a forecast unchanged from the December STEO. The agency predicts production will expand to 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average 20,000 barrels per day this year, unchanged from last month’s outlook. The EIA, however, currently estimates net imports of renewable diesel averaged 30,000 barrels per day in 2024, down from December forecast of 40,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average 20,000 barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA maintained its outlook for 2024 and 2025 renewable diesel consumption at 230,000 barrels per day and 240,000 barrels per day, respectively. Renewable diesel consumption is expected to expand to 270,000 barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA also maintained its outlook that biodiesel production would average 110,000 barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025. The agency currently expects biodiesel production to fall to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Net imports of biodiesel averaged 10,000 barrels per day in 2024, an estimate unchanged from the December STEO. The EIA currently predicts biodiesel exports will fall to near zero barrels per day in 2025 and 2026.
Biodiesel consumption averaged 120,000 barrels per day in 2024 and is currently expected to fall to 100,000 barrels per day this year and remain at that level in 2026.
The production of “other biofuels,” defined to include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet), renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, a forecast unchanged from last month. Production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and is expected to reach 50,000 barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA currently expects net imports of “other biofuels” to be at zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024. Consumption of “other biofuels” is estimated at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and forecast at 40,000 barrels per day in 2025. Both outlooks were maintained from the December STEO. The consumption of “other biofuels” is currently expected to reach 50,000 barrels per day in 2026.
