The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its outlook for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 11. The estimates for 2024 fuel ethanol production and exports were revised up.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day in 2025, down from the February outlook of 1.06 million barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day in 2026. The EIA also updated its estimate for 2024 ethanol production to 1.06 million barrels per day, up from the estimate of 1.05 million barrels per day made last month.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.07 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2025, falling to 1.03 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and partially rebounding to 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2026, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day during the second quarter, 1.05 million barrels per day during the third quarter and 1.07 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are expected to average -130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. The EIA, however, now estimates that net imports of fuel ethanol averaged -130,000 barrels per day in 2024, up from the February estimate of -120,000 barrels per day.
Fuel ethanol consumption averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2024. The EIA maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol consumption will continue to average 930,000 barrels per day this year, but increased its outlook for 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from the February forecast of 920,000 barrels per day.
