The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 11. The outlook for corn prices, however, was increased.
The current outlook for 2024-’25 U.S. corn supply is unchanged from January. The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents to $435 per bushel.
The USDA maintained its forecast that 5.5 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2024-’25, up from 5.478 billion bushels for 2023-’24 and 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23.
Global coarse grain production for 2024-‘25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. According to USDA, this month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.
Major global trade changes for 2024-‘25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3 million.
