India’s cotton acreage for market year (MY) 2025-26 is seen lower at 11.4 million hectares, a three per cent decrease from the previous year due to the unexpected shift of planted area to higher return crops such as pulses and oilseeds, according to the forecast by USDA India Post. Cotton acreage for MY 2024-25 was 11.8 m ha.
However, production is seen at 25 million bales of 480 pounds each similar to the current year on higher yields. Based on the expectation of a normal monsoon season, the USDA Post has forecast an average yield of 477 kilograms per hectare for MY 2025/26, a three percent increase from the official MY 2024/25 estimate of 461 kilograms per hectare due to production in regions with adequate irrigation facilities and water availability.
The USDA Post said the planted area in Punjab is forecast to remain steady, with reductions in Haryana by five percent due to a shift to paddy rice planting. Yields in both states are expected to be marginally lower as farmers divert water to other crops. The area planted in Rajasthan is expected to be down two percent from the previous year, as farmers are seen shifting area to crops such as guar, maize and pulses (mung) due to anticipated higher prices. However, better pest management practices will likely support higher yields, it said.
The acreage in Gujarat, the largest producing state, is expected down three percent from last year on shifts to pulses, groundnut, cumin and sesamum. Although current domestic farmgate prices for cotton have seen lower decline than other commodities, its cost of production remains significantly higher, it said. In addition to the shorter growing duration, strong government support, and export demand makes pulses and groundnut a preferred crop this season in Gujarat.
