The USDA reduced its forecast for 2024-25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released March 11. The outlook for soybean oil price was unchanged.
The agency maintained its forecasts for 2024-25 soybean planted area and harvested area at 87.1 million acres and 86.1 million acres, respectively. The outlook for soybean yields was also unchanged at 50.7 bushels per acre.
According to the USDA, the current outlook for 2024-25 U.S. supply and use is unchanged from the February WASDE. The soybean oil balance sheet, however, includes higher exports and lower soybean oil use in biofuel production.
The USDA currently predicts 13.45 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-25, down from the February forecast of 13.6 billion pounds. Approximately 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-24, compared to 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-23.
The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pounds, respectively.
Global 2024-‘25 soybean supply and use forecasts include nearly unchanged production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Higher production for Ukraine, Mexico, and Australia is offset by lower production for South Africa. Soybean crush is raised 2.9 million tons to 352.8 million, mainly on higher crush for China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, and Pakistan. Soybean crush for China is raised 2 million tons to 105 million based on pace to date. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged as higher shipments for Canada are offset by lower exports for South Africa. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million mainly on lower stocks for China and Argentina.
