The USDA predicts fiscal year (FY) 2025 U.S. ethanol export volumes will reach a record 1.85 billion gallons, according to the agency’s latest quarterly trade outlook, released on Feb. 27. The forecast is up slightly when compared to the previous quarterly outlook.
According to the USDA, the value of FY 2025 fuel ethanol exports is forecast at $4.2, unchanged from the November outlook. If realized, the value of FY 2025 ethanol exports will tie the record made in FY 2024.
The slight increase in export volumes is expected to be offset by modestly lower export unit values following lower year-over-year corn and crude oil prices. Shipments are forecast slightly higher to the top five U.S. export markets in FY 2025, including Canada, the European Union, India, the U.K. and Colombia.
In its outlook, the USDA said conditions in Canada are favorable with higher blending supported by federal and provincial policy as U.S. sales cover approximately 60% of domestic demand. U.S. sales to the U.K. and select EU countries track higher with blending increases and favorable pricing compared with Brazil’s product. India’s demand remains strong for U.S. ethanol use in nonfuel applications as domestic product is increasingly diverted into the fuel market. Colombia’s demand for U.S. ethanol is slightly higher as the E10 goal is reached. Brazil’s 18% import duty on ethanol continues to weigh on U.S. export opportunity to that market, according to USDA.
A full copy of the report is available on the USDA website.
