USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released noon Thursday gave corn and soybean markets some good news in the form of lower-than-expected U.S. ending stocks that exceeded pre-report estimates for corn, and a reduction in soybeans stock that ran counter to pre-report predictions of an increase.
Noting that the “WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication,” USDA increased expected U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels, while holding soybean exports unchanged from the March report.
At the close of markets, nearby corn was up 9 cents, with new crop up 3.5 cents. Soybeans also responded with the nearby contract up 16.25 cents and new crop up 7.75 cents.
Corn
USDA predicted increased exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks compared to the March report.
Feed and residual use was trimmed 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter reported in the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
Exports were raised 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices.
With no other use changes, ending stocks were down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Globally, USDA lowered estimated production by 0.4 million tons to 1.495 billion, while imports were raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam, leaving trade figures virtually unchanged trade.
“Foreign corn production is raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France, and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria,” USDA wrote.
USDA trimmed 1.3 million tons from March global corn ending stocks to 287.7 million tons
Soybeans
Despite market anxiety over the impact of Chinese tariffs, USDA left soybean exports unchanged while slightly increasing imports, predicting U.S. ending stocks would fall 5 million bushels from the March report to 375 million bushels.
“Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports,” USDA said based on export commitments.
While lowering soybean oil for biofuel based on the current pace, USDA predicted stronger use toward the end of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, including used cooking oil.
All things considered, USDA left the predicted season-average price for soybeans unchanged at $9.95 per bushel while cutting $10 per ton for soybean meal to $300 and predicted a 2-cent increase in the price of soybean oil to 45 cents per pound.
Globally, USDA’s outlook for soybean supply and demand included higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher exports, with global ending stocks increasing 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million due to higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.
“Beginning stocks are raised 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023/24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023/24 production is raised 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million,” USDA reported.
Global soybean crush was increased 2 million tons to 354.8 million from the March report. USDA predicted that higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. would provide ample soybean meal supplies, lower prices would lead to increased soybean meal consumption globally.
Wheat
USDA’s supply and demand outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks.
Supplies were raised on higher projected imports — up 10 million bushels to 150 million — with increases for hard red spring, durum, white, and hard red winter. If that level of imports keeps up, USDA said it would be the largest numbers since 2017-18.
Meanwhile, domestic consumption was forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use.
Feed and residual use predictions were unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there were offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 Grain Stocks report. While exports were lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million, projected 2024-25 ending stocks were raised 27 million bushels to 846 million — 22% above the previous year.
USDA left the season average farm price for wheat unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
The 2024-25 global wheat outlook calls for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports and larger ending stocks.
Supplies were lowered 0.8 million tons to 1,065.9 million, while the world consumption was forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China.
Projected 2024-25 global trade was also cut by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the European Union that were only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine.
USDA expects exports for 2024-25 to be 7% lower year-over-year, and projected 2024-25 world ending stocks to increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United States, and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China.
Global stocks for 2024-25 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since 2015-16.
Sugar
Estimates for the U.S. sugar supply in FY 2024-25 were increased by 143,758 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.461 million on increases in high-tier tariff imports and beginning stocks more than offsetting a decrease in sugar production.
Raw high-tier tariff imports entering the U.S. from Oct. 1 through the first week of April totaled 261,758 STRV — an increase of 88,070 over the previous month, while refined high-tier tariff imports totaled 237,104 STRV over the same period for a monthly average of 39,517 STRV.
“A decrease in the pace is posited as more likely than an increase or unchanged due to historically high current levels of refined beet and cane sugar that could increase competition for refined high-tier from the domestically produced product,” USDA wrote.
“Monthly entries for the remaining 6 months of the fiscal year are projected, therefore, at 75% of the first six-month average, implying total high-tier refined at 414,931 STRV.”
With no changes for sugar use, ending stocks were projected to increase to 2.016 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.2%
