Despite temperature ruling above the normal range in the key growing regions, the prospects of higher output of wheat, a key rabi crop, looks bright as the crop conditions are largely robust, officials and millers said.
“There is no cause of concern about the standing wheat crop, there are no projections of any abnormal rise in temperature or heat wave in the coming 10 to 15 days,” Ch Srinivasa Rao, director, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, told FE. He added that prevailing night temperatures have been cooler thus helping the crop.
However Rao said that temperature during the second half of March, just prior to harvesting, would be crucial to assess the crop yield. Recently, Ratan Tiwari, director, Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal based institute has ruled out any reports of yellow or brown rusts in the wheat crop.
Wheat sowing this season has increased to 32 million hectare (Mha) against 31.56 Mha last year and higher than the average sown area of the last five year.
Wheat harvest in last three years had been adversely impacted by excessive heat prior to harvesting of crop and unseasonal rains in March
Navneet Chitlangia, president, Roller Flour Millers Federation of India said while currently it’s a ‘lean’ period in terms of supplies, there are insufficient stocks with the millers before new crops start arriving in the market by March.
“Crop health looks robust as per reports we received from ground as night temperature is quite cooler while higher days temperature helps in crop growth,” Chitlangia said. He said the federation had projected a wheat output of 105 – 106 million tonne (MT) in 2023-24 crop year (July-June), this year they are anticipating the output to go up by 3%-4% which would be adequate for maintaining supplies throughout the year.
According to the agriculture ministry, wheat output in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) is estimated at 113.29 MT. The crop estimate for the 2024-25 crop year is expected to be released soon.
Chitlangia also stated that current mandi prices of wheat which are ruling around Rs 3200/quintal in Delhi are likely to decline once new harvest starts arriving in the market over the next six weeks.
Inflation in wheat was 8.8% in January, 2025 on year. Inflation has been in single digit since August, 2023.
Trades sources said While global wheat prices are lower than domestic prices, the mandi prices are likely to rule around Rs 2600/quintal once new crop starts arriving as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have announced a bonus of Rs 125/quintal over the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2425/quintal announced by the centre for 2024-25 rabi marketing season (April-June).
At present, FCI has 15.5 MT of wheat stock against the buffer of 7.46 MT for April 1. Under the open market sale scheme commenced last month, over a million tonne (MT) of wheat have been sold to bulk buyers such as flour millers and processors through weekly e-auctions. The wheat procurement by agencies would commence from April 1.
The government has allocated 2.5 MT of wheat to be sold in the open market aimed at curbing spike prices in the current fiscal from central pool stock. FCI is offloading wheat at a price excluding transportation at Rs 2,325/quintal, according to an official statement.
